The Tax Brief real effective rates for 111+ countries — bi-weekly, free.
IRS Data Report · 2021–2022 · US State Migration

📊 The Great State Tax Migration: 2021-2022 IRS Data

355,809 people left California in 2021-2022. We calculated exactly how much they're saving on taxes. Complete analysis of state-to-state migration patterns using official IRS data.

0.84M
Total Interstate Movers
From high-tax to low-tax states
$5.4B
Total Tax Savings
Estimated annual savings at $100K income
$6,500
Average Savings
Per person who moved from high-tax state
$92,400
10-Year Impact
CA → TX at $100K income
By Daniel · CountryTaxCalc

Migration data from IRS Statistics of Income (2021-2022, most recent available). Tax calculations verified against official state tax authorities.

Executive Summary: Why Millions Are Moving

The Tax Savings Are Real

At $100,000 income, moving from California to Texas saves $9,240 per year in state income tax. Over 10 years, that's $92,400. With 102,442 Californians moving to Texas in 2021-2022, that's ~$946 million in annual tax savings for those movers.

The Three States Losing the Most People

  1. California: Lost 355,809 people (net) — largest exodus in state history
  2. New York: Lost 267,156 people — accelerating post-COVID trend
  3. Illinois: Lost 106,716 people — 9th consecutive year of losses

The Three States Gaining the Most People

  1. Florida: Gained 261,863 people — no state income tax
  2. Texas: Gained 182,704 people — no state income tax
  3. North Carolina: Gained 89,362 people — flat 4.5% rate

The Pattern Is Clear

Of the top 10 states gaining population, 6 have no state income tax (Florida, Texas, Tennessee, Nevada, Washington, Arizona). The remaining 4 have low flat taxes or reduced rates. High-tax states are losing population to low-tax states at an accelerating pace.

Where Are Californians Going? (Top 5 Destinations)

355,809 people left California (net) in 2021-2022. Here's where they went and how much they're saving:

California → Texas
102,442 people
Annual Tax Savings @ $100K $9,240
10-Year Tax Savings $92,400
Collective Annual Savings $947M
Compare California vs Texas →
California → Arizona
74,157 people
Annual Tax Savings @ $100K $5,890
10-Year Tax Savings $58,900
Collective Annual Savings $437M
Compare California vs Arizona →
California → Florida
50,701 people
Annual Tax Savings @ $100K $9,240
10-Year Tax Savings $92,400
Collective Annual Savings $468M
Compare California vs Florida →
California → Nevada
47,322 people
Annual Tax Savings @ $100K $9,240
10-Year Tax Savings $92,400
Collective Annual Savings $437M
Compare California vs Nevada →
California → Washington
37,567 people
Annual Tax Savings @ $100K $9,240
10-Year Tax Savings $92,400
Collective Annual Savings $347M
Compare California vs Washington →

Complete Rankings: Winners & Losers

🏆 Top 5 States Gaining Population

RankState Net Migration Tax Rate Avg Savings
1 🌴 Florida +261,863 0% +$8,500/yr
2 🤠 Texas +182,704 0% +$7,800/yr
3 🌲 North Carolina +89,362 4.5% +$4,200/yr
4 🏖️ South Carolina +57,556 0–6.4% +$3,800/yr
5 🎸 Tennessee +56,385 0% +$7,200/yr

📉 Top 5 States Losing Population

RankState Net Migration Tax Rate Avg Loss
1 ☀️ California -355,809 1–13.3% −$9,240/yr
2 🗽 New York -267,156 4–10.9% −$7,450/yr
3 🌆 Illinois -106,716 4.95% −$5,670/yr
4 🌊 New Jersey -64,177 1.4–10.75% −$6,890/yr
5 🦞 Massachusetts -44,489 5% −$4,120/yr

The Math Behind the Moves

California → Texas at $100K Income

High-Tax State

California

California State Income Tax $6,240
California SDI $1,070
California Local Taxes $0
Total California Tax Burden $7,310/year
Low-Tax State

Texas

Texas State Income Tax $0
Texas SDI $0
Texas Local Taxes $0
Total Texas Tax Burden $0/year
+$7,310
Annual savings moving from CA to TX at $100K 10-year impact (no reinvestment): $73,100 · With 5% compounding: $92,400
⚠️ Reality Check: It's Not Just About Taxes

While California → Texas saves ~$7,300/year in state income tax at $100K, Texas has higher property taxes (avg 1.6% vs CA 0.7%) and higher sales taxes (avg 8.2% vs 7.25%). Housing costs vary dramatically by city (Austin expensive, Dallas moderate, Houston affordable). Total cost of living matters more than just income tax.

Why Is This Happening Now?

Housing Costs

Median CA home: $798,000 (2022). Median TX home: $303,000. That's a $495,000 difference. Even with higher TX property tax rates, annual costs are lower.

Remote Work Revolution

COVID normalised remote work. Why pay CA taxes + CA housing costs if you can work from anywhere? Tech workers especially arbitraging location.

Tax Rate Divergence

High-tax states raised taxes (CA added 13.3% bracket in 2012). Low-tax states kept rates flat or reduced them. The gap widened.

Climate & Lifestyle

Florida/Texas/Arizona = warm weather, lower cost of living, less regulation. Retirees and families prioritising quality of life.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is this data accurate?

Yes. Migration numbers are from IRS Statistics of Income, based on address changes on federal tax returns. This is the most reliable migration data available (more accurate than Census estimates). Tax calculations are from official state tax authorities and verified against state tax calculators.

What about property taxes?

Texas has much higher property taxes than California (1.6% vs 0.7% average). A $400K home in Texas costs ~$6,400/year in property tax vs ~$2,800 in California. However, you can buy a much nicer home in Texas for $400K. It's about total housing cost, not just tax rate.

Don't no-income-tax states just tax you elsewhere?

Partially yes. Texas/Florida have higher sales tax and property tax. But the math still works out for most people. At $100K income, you'd need to spend $103,000 on taxable goods (at 9% sales tax) to pay $9,270 in sales tax (equivalent to CA income tax). Most people don't spend their entire income on taxable goods.

Is California doomed?

No, but the trend is concerning. California's population declined for the first time in 2020-2022. However, it still has the world's 5th largest economy, dominates tech/entertainment, and attracts international immigration. The question is whether high earners leaving will create a "tax death spiral" where remaining residents pay higher rates to make up lost revenue.

Should I move just for taxes?

Probably not. Taxes are one factor. Also consider: job market, family proximity, climate, schools (if you have kids), healthcare access, culture fit, and total cost of living. Moving from California to save $9K/year makes sense if you're remote and flexible. Moving if it means leaving a $150K job for a $100K job doesn't.

Calculate Your Tax Savings

See exactly how much you'd save by moving from your current state to any other:

Data Sources & Methodology

Migration Data

Tax Calculations

Limitations

These are estimates based on average scenarios. Your actual tax savings depend on: income level, filing status, deductions, local taxes, and more. Property taxes and cost of living vary dramatically within states. Always consult a tax professional for your specific situation.